Clear and Present Danger
At the time of writing, global equities are up around 17% in US dollars year to date. Sterling weakness has added a further 3 percentage...
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20213 min read
Lessons From the Chimps
In a recent op-ed, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath noted that: “For the first time, in 60% of the global economy – including 97% of...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20193 min read
An Unwelcome Comeback
In last month’s column I wrote about the yield curve – the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates – and how its...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20193 min read
This Time it is Different, Again
A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20192 min read
Global Growth
Until the beginning of October last year, equity markets had generally been faring well, while bond and commodity markets reflected firm...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20197 min read
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20184 min read
Krippner Revisited
In January 2016, I wrote about some interesting but little-heard-of research by Dr Leo Krippner at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20185 min read
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20183 min read
Reducing Equity Targets
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20183 min read
The Investor as an Animal
Behaviour is everything. Our collective behaviour determines whether we as societies or as a race are creating or destroying. From time...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20183 min read
It’s Different this Time. Really?
Just before the 1929 Wall Street crash, celebrated Yale economist Irving Fisher claimed that the stock market had reached “a permanently...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20184 min read
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20184 min read
My Framework for Tactical Asset Allocation
My framework for tactical asset allocation is based on business cycle analysis and the documented findings that asset classes tend to...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20153 min read
Whither the Oil Price?
Despite some proclaiming that the price fall was a sign of a weakening global economy, I suspect that increased supply has been mostly to...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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