OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20203 min read
What is a Technology Business?
Our ancestor who made the first stone tool, perhaps as long as three million years ago, set in motion one of the most enduring of...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20203 min read
Pick Out Persistent Themes
To invoke US conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman Charlie Munger: if investing is not thematic, what the hell is it? Here is...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20204 min read
Gold is No Longer for Fools
As many will know from bitter experience, a crisis often has two stages. The first is the crisis itself, whether a natural disaster that...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20203 min read
The Price of Safety
The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20193 min read
The Road Ahead
Last month’s column was about predicting financial markets over the medium term. This month I thought it would be fun to look much...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20185 min read
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20183 min read
It’s Different this Time. Really?
Just before the 1929 Wall Street crash, celebrated Yale economist Irving Fisher claimed that the stock market had reached “a permanently...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20163 min read
An Interesting Essay by San Francisco Fed President, John Williams
Having written about secular stagnation and the natural rate of interest in my August letter, it was interesting to see San Francisco Fed...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20163 min read
Secular Stagnation and the Natural Rate of Interest
One of the most interesting features of global financial markets over the last 20 years has been the inexorable decline in long-term real...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20153 min read
Captain Murphy’s Diary
Murphy’s Law says that what can go wrong, will go wrong. It is thought to be named after Captain Ed Murphy, an aircraft engineer who,...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20154 min read
Healthcare Stocks are Sniffing, but They will Get Better
Healthcare stocks have certainly caught a nasty cold recently. Investors have fled as if they fear an infection. But as with humans, so...
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20156 min read
Captain Murphy’s Diary
Murphy’s Law says that what can go wrong, will go wrong. It is thought to be named after Captain Ed Murphy, an aircraft engineer who,...
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Peter Elston
Aug 1, 20152 min read
Scientific Advance
I don’t know whether it’s me noticing them more, the media picking up on them to a greater extent, or the fact that there are more of...
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Peter Elston
May 1, 20154 min read
The Big Picture
Looking back, the biggest events over the last 18 months have been the substantial falls in G7 bond yields and the oil price as well as...
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Peter Elston
Oct 1, 20095 min read
Emerging Markets are our Future
What will the world look like in 2050? Any credible answer to this question must, of course, be as complex as the question itself is...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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