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Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles

Our ancestor who made the first stone tool, perhaps as long as three million years ago, set in motion one of the most enduring of...

To invoke US conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman Charlie Munger: if investing is not thematic, what the hell is it? Here is...

As many will know from bitter experience, a crisis often has two stages. The first is the crisis itself, whether a natural disaster that...

The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...

Last month’s column was about predicting financial markets over the medium term. This month I thought it would be fun to look much...

October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....

Just before the 1929 Wall Street crash, celebrated Yale economist Irving Fisher claimed that the stock market had reached “a permanently...

Having written about secular stagnation and the natural rate of interest in my August letter, it was interesting to see San Francisco Fed...

One of the most interesting features of global financial markets over the last 20 years has been the inexorable decline in long-term real...

Healthcare stocks have certainly caught a nasty cold recently. Investors have fled as if they fear an infection. But as with humans, so...

I don’t know whether it’s me noticing them more, the media picking up on them to a greater extent, or the fact that there are more of...

Looking back, the biggest events over the last 18 months have been the substantial falls in G7 bond yields and the oil price as well as...