Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Oct 12, 20227 min read
Miscarriages of Justice in Killer Caregiver Cases
As another 'angel of death' case gets underway in Manchester, the spotlight is turned once again on use of statistics and investigation obje
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Peter Elston
Aug 22, 20226 min read
A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20224 min read
Divine Messages?
I remember with amusement a presentation some years ago by a technical analyst, a so-called chartist.
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20213 min read
When the Fun Stops...
How can young people be helped to reach this epiphany sooner?
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20214 min read
Vital Statistics
Statistical analysis reveals truth about data. Academic papers based on experimental data normally require a formal, statistical analysis...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20213 min read
Buy Young, Sell Old
How and when should you buy in and sell out of the stock market? My natural response to this age old question is to suggest that one...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20204 min read
Of Probability and Presidents
Cricket often produces riveting five-day games, but in early November the US delivered its own epic struggle. I refer of course to the...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20203 min read
The Price of Safety
The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20193 min read
EM Investing Still Pays Dividends
I feel very fortunate to have had the opportunity to live and work abroad for a number of years. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore were not...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20195 min read
Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market
I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20183 min read
Will an Algorithm Replace Me?
I was presenting at a multi-asset investing conference recently and during the Q&A was asked, “Will you be replaced by an ‘algo’?” My...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20184 min read
How Investors Often Make Bad Mistakes En Masse
Having now written two series of articles exclusively for Trustnet on the subjects of ‘investment risk’ and ‘value investing’, I now turn...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20175 min read
A New, Simple, Comprehensive Measure of Fund ‘Active-ness’
In the spirit of Christmas, I present in this final letter of the year some truly psychedelic charts! "I guess he’d never heard of Warren...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20177 min read
Yet More Shocking Findings About Active Management
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Most of you will...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20172 min read
The Case for UK Growth
In his 1992 Chairman’s Letter, Warren Buffett wrote that the investment approaches ‘value’ and ‘growth’ are “joined at the hip”. In many...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20173 min read
Long-Term Growth Prospects may be Rosier than you Think
The concept of ‘intrinsic value’ is at the heart of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s 1934 framework that would later be known as ‘value...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20172 min read
Interesting Anomaly with Respect to Global Fund Managers’ AUM Rankings
I mentioned at the start of this letter that we had been shortlisted for two prestigious awards. We were nominated in two of 18...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20172 min read
Attempt at Murder Sleuthing
I watched this documentary and became fascinated by the case. Michael Peterson was convicted of murdering his wife, having tried,...
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Peter Elston
Aug 1, 20154 min read
When will Commodities Prices Recover?
Unlike equities, bonds or property, commodities cannot be valued on the basis of the income they generate. This makes it hard to feel...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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