The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More

Jun 22, 20224 min read

Valuing the Essential Nature of Stuff

There is a remarkably simple test for whether something has intrinsic value

Jun 18, 20222 min read

Crypto Fallout

How does one value crypto's poster child?

Jul 31, 20214 min read

Boom and Bust

Speculative bubbles – famous examples of which are tulips in the 17th century, the South Sea Company in the 18th, British railways in the...

Nov 1, 20193 min read

The Indiscriminate Inflow Threat

Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-hedge fund manager who foresaw the bursting of both the tech and subprime bubbles, has just revealed...

Sep 30, 20195 min read

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette

This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

May 31, 20195 min read

Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market

I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...

Mar 31, 20145 min read

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets – Didier Sornette

These recent posts on the subject of active management have sought to distil the work of those who have found pattern in asset prices and...

Where's My Cycle?

An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets

Correlation or causation?

Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way

Dear John

Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame

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