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I remember with amusement a presentation some years ago by a technical analyst, a so-called chartist.

How and when should you buy in and sell out of the stock market? My natural response to this age old question is to suggest that one...

This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...

This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...

According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...

Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...

I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...

In January 2016, I wrote about some interesting but little-heard-of research by Dr Leo Krippner at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the...

As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...

Take a look at the equity weight over time of some multi-asset funds and you’d have thought that the manager was at best flipping coins...

The three funds my team manage are all multi-asset, investing in equities, bonds, and specialist investment trusts that themselves invest...

My framework for thinking about asset allocation and thus portfolio protection is based around business cycle analysis. It is well...

Question: what is significant about the dates February 1996, October 2015 and January 2017? Answer: these were the dates on which, for...

I recently came across a paper written in 2008 by Robeco’s Pim van Vliet and David Blitz entitled Dynamic Strategic Asset Allocation:...

The OECD calculates leading indices every month for a large number of countries. Chart 5 below shows the year-on-year change in the...