Divine Messages?
I remember with amusement a presentation some years ago by a technical analyst, a so-called chartist.
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20213 min read
Buy Young, Sell Old
How and when should you buy in and sell out of the stock market? My natural response to this age old question is to suggest that one...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20194 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Corporate Governance
This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette
This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller
This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama
According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20194 min read
Making the Most of an Investment Edge
Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20193 min read
Advice for the Asset Allocator
I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20184 min read
Krippner Revisited
In January 2016, I wrote about some interesting but little-heard-of research by Dr Leo Krippner at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20183 min read
Review and Outlook
Although April saw equity markets look a little perkier, following a period of weakness that began in mid-January, it also saw safe haven...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20184 min read
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20174 min read
Keeping it Simple – How to Add Value Effectively Through Tactical Asset Allocation
Take a look at the equity weight over time of some multi-asset funds and you’d have thought that the manager was at best flipping coins...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20174 min read
The Big Issues with 'Absolute Return Funds'
The three funds my team manage are all multi-asset, investing in equities, bonds, and specialist investment trusts that themselves invest...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20173 min read
How to Protect your Portfolio
My framework for thinking about asset allocation and thus portfolio protection is based around business cycle analysis. It is well...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20176 min read
Is a Computer Going to Steal my Job as a Fund Manager?
Question: what is significant about the dates February 1996, October 2015 and January 2017? Answer: these were the dates on which, for...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20175 min read
2017 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. My job is to...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20172 min read
A Review of my 2016 Investment Outlook
This time last year I wrote, “We believe on balance that the world will continue to grow in 2016, that equity market valuations by and...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20174 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation and the Business Cycle
I recently came across a paper written in 2008 by Robeco’s Pim van Vliet and David Blitz entitled Dynamic Strategic Asset Allocation:...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20161 min read
What are OECD Leading Indicators Telling Us?
The OECD calculates leading indices every month for a large number of countries. Chart 5 below shows the year-on-year change in the...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20165 min read
Multi-Asset and the Changing Nature of Asset Allocation
Financial advisers will be only too aware that the difference between a comfortable retirement and an uncomfortable one is almost too...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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