OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Aug 25, 20224 min read
Randomness And The Galton Board
For those who know what the normal/Gaussian distribution looks like but are not quite sure what it is
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Peter Elston
Aug 22, 20226 min read
A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20214 min read
Vital Statistics
Statistical analysis reveals truth about data. Academic papers based on experimental data normally require a formal, statistical analysis...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20204 min read
Of Probability and Presidents
Cricket often produces riveting five-day games, but in early November the US delivered its own epic struggle. I refer of course to the...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20203 min read
Pick Out Persistent Themes
To invoke US conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman Charlie Munger: if investing is not thematic, what the hell is it? Here is...
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20193 min read
Many Unhappy Returns
Investment strategist James Montier now works with famed fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, but in a past life wrote a fabulous paper...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20193 min read
Advice for the Asset Allocator
I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20183 min read
Will an Algorithm Replace Me?
I was presenting at a multi-asset investing conference recently and during the Q&A was asked, “Will you be replaced by an ‘algo’?” My...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20184 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20183 min read
Hubris is the Greatest Challenge
I am not exactly sure how I have ended up as a chief investment officer. Looking forward at the investment landscape, I generally only...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20183 min read
Investment Markets are There to Make you Look Stupid
When you make a decision to buy something, whether a stock, a fund, an ETF or a passive fund, you impose on yourself a second decision,...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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