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This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...

This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...

According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...

I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...

The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...

Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...

This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....

In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...

Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...

Remember cryptocurrencies? Actually, that is a little unfair as they are still popular and thus still have much further to fall. Bitcoin...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Since the Great...

As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...

I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...

In the spirit of Christmas, I present in this final letter of the year some truly psychedelic charts! "I guess he’d never heard of Warren...

Take a look at the equity weight over time of some multi-asset funds and you’d have thought that the manager was at best flipping coins...