The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More

Nov 1, 20194 min read

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Corporate Governance

This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette

Peter Elston

Sep 30, 20195 min read

Macro

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette

This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller

Peter Elston

Aug 31, 20195 min read

Investing

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller

This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama

Peter Elston

Jul 31, 20195 min read

Markets

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama

According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...

Peter Elston

Jun 30, 20193 min read

Macro

A Confusing Time for Economists

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...

Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market

Peter Elston

May 31, 20195 min read

Statistics and Science

Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market

I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...

Long-term Returns and the Dangers of Complacency

Peter Elston

Apr 30, 20195 min read

Investing

Long-term Returns and the Dangers of Complacency

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...

Peter Elston

Mar 1, 20193 min read

Markets

Gold Is Not What You Think It Is

The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...

Peter Elston

Mar 1, 20194 min read

Investing

Making the Most of an Investment Edge

Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...

Peter Elston

Feb 1, 20198 min read

Macro

Is a Recession Imminent?

This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....

Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities

Peter Elston

Aug 31, 20184 min read

Markets

Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities

In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...

Am I Right to Worry About Higher Inflation?

Peter Elston

Jul 31, 20185 min read

Macro

Am I Right to Worry About Higher Inflation?

Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...

Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle

Peter Elston

Jun 30, 20184 min read

Investing

Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...

Peter Elston

May 31, 20184 min read

Investing

Cryptocurrencies: the Ultimate Bubble

Remember cryptocurrencies? Actually, that is a little unfair as they are still popular and thus still have much further to fall. Bitcoin...

Secular Stagnation? Or the Optimistic View?

Peter Elston

Apr 30, 20185 min read

Macro

Secular Stagnation? Or the Optimistic View?

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Since the Great...

Peter Elston

Mar 31, 20184 min read

Markets

A Timely Reminder

As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...

Peter Elston

Mar 1, 20185 min read

Investing

Behave Yourself!

I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...

Peter Elston

Jan 1, 20185 min read

A Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018

All three of our funds have been blowing passive multi-asset funds out of the water based on volatility adjusted returns for five years...

A New, Simple, Comprehensive Measure of Fund ‘Active-ness’

Peter Elston

Dec 1, 20175 min read

Investing

A New, Simple, Comprehensive Measure of Fund ‘Active-ness’

In the spirit of Christmas, I present in this final letter of the year some truly psychedelic charts! "I guess he’d never heard of Warren...

Keeping it Simple – How to Add Value Effectively Through Tactical Asset Allocation

Peter Elston

Nov 1, 20174 min read

Investing

Keeping it Simple – How to Add Value Effectively Through Tactical Asset Allocation

Take a look at the equity weight over time of some multi-asset funds and you’d have thought that the manager was at best flipping coins...

Where's My Cycle?

An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets

Correlation or causation?

Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way

Dear John

Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame

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