Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Corporate Governance
This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette
This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller
This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama
According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20193 min read
A Confusing Time for Economists
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20195 min read
Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market
I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20195 min read
Long-term Returns and the Dangers of Complacency
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20193 min read
Gold Is Not What You Think It Is
The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20194 min read
Making the Most of an Investment Edge
Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20198 min read
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20184 min read
Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities
In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20185 min read
Am I Right to Worry About Higher Inflation?
Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20184 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20184 min read
Cryptocurrencies: the Ultimate Bubble
Remember cryptocurrencies? Actually, that is a little unfair as they are still popular and thus still have much further to fall. Bitcoin...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20185 min read
Secular Stagnation? Or the Optimistic View?
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Since the Great...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20184 min read
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20185 min read
Behave Yourself!
I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20185 min read
A Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018
All three of our funds have been blowing passive multi-asset funds out of the water based on volatility adjusted returns for five years...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20175 min read
A New, Simple, Comprehensive Measure of Fund ‘Active-ness’
In the spirit of Christmas, I present in this final letter of the year some truly psychedelic charts! "I guess he’d never heard of Warren...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20174 min read
Keeping it Simple – How to Add Value Effectively Through Tactical Asset Allocation
Take a look at the equity weight over time of some multi-asset funds and you’d have thought that the manager was at best flipping coins...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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