Peter ElstonAug 30, 202210 min readMacroStability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
Peter ElstonAug 26, 20224 min readStatistics and ScienceOK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
Peter ElstonMay 31, 20195 min readStatistics and ScienceEdge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock MarketI have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...
Where's My Cycle?An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets