Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
top of page
INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Oct 27, 20225 min read
Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds
940
Peter Elston
Sep 7, 20226 min read
Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
840
Peter Elston
Aug 3, 20223 min read
Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
850
Peter Elston
Jun 21, 20224 min read
Do Trends Exist?
It's not about cycles and trends, but pattern and randomness
1040
Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20224 min read
Clear and Present Danger
At the time of writing, global equities are up around 17% in US dollars year to date. Sterling weakness has added a further 3 percentage...
160
Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20213 min read
Lessons From the Chimps
In a recent op-ed, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath noted that: “For the first time, in 60% of the global economy – including 97% of...
80
Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20203 min read
Stand Firm and Be Strong
For some time now I have been expecting the current global business cycle to end in 2020, with the caveat that it was almost as likely to...
70
Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20193 min read
A Confusing Time for Economists
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...
91
Peter Elston
May 31, 20193 min read
Why I'm Most Negative on US
The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...
50
Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20198 min read
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
60
Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20197 min read
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
30
Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20185 min read
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
10
Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20183 min read
Reducing Equity Targets
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...
00
Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20184 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...
30
Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20184 min read
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
71
Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20185 min read
Behave Yourself!
I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...
72
Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20184 min read
My Framework for Tactical Asset Allocation
My framework for tactical asset allocation is based on business cycle analysis and the documented findings that asset classes tend to...
60
Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20183 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation Framework
My first piece about asset allocation set out my framework for both strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation, as well as...
80
Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20185 min read
A Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018
All three of our funds have been blowing passive multi-asset funds out of the water based on volatility adjusted returns for five years...
20
bottom of page