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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Jan 6, 20236 min read
Do Not Let Your Comfortable Retirement Slip Away
Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20213 min read
Buy Young, Sell Old
How and when should you buy in and sell out of the stock market? My natural response to this age old question is to suggest that one...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20203 min read
Stand Firm and Be Strong
For some time now I have been expecting the current global business cycle to end in 2020, with the caveat that it was almost as likely to...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20193 min read
Why I'm Most Negative on US
The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20195 min read
Long-term Returns and the Dangers of Complacency
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20192 min read
Global Growth
Until the beginning of October last year, equity markets had generally been faring well, while bond and commodity markets reflected firm...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20198 min read
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20193 min read
Advice for the Asset Allocator
I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20194 min read
Review of 2018 Fund Performance
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. As it’s the...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20197 min read
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20185 min read
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20183 min read
Reducing Equity Targets
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20185 min read
Am I Right to Worry About Higher Inflation?
Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20184 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20183 min read
Review and Outlook
The month of May saw equities on the whole continuing to recover from their February and March declines as economic data remained broadly...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20184 min read
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20185 min read
Behave Yourself!
I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20184 min read
My Framework for Tactical Asset Allocation
My framework for tactical asset allocation is based on business cycle analysis and the documented findings that asset classes tend to...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20183 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation Framework
My first piece about asset allocation set out my framework for both strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation, as well as...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20185 min read
A Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018
All three of our funds have been blowing passive multi-asset funds out of the water based on volatility adjusted returns for five years...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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