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This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...

This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

Investment strategist James Montier now works with famed fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, but in a past life wrote a fabulous paper...

This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...

I feel very fortunate to have had the opportunity to live and work abroad for a number of years. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore were not...

The investment profession is one I have often said that I both love and loath. I love the company or country analysis; and the fact that...

According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...

For such a simple word, risk is quite hard to define. It is generally agreed that it pertains to danger of some sort, but that is where...

In last month’s column I wrote about the yield curve – the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates – and how its...

I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...

The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...

A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...

Income continues to be the principal concern for many investors in the UK - both in the run-up to and throughout retirement. Reinvested...

Risks generally come in two forms, those that can be borne by the individual and those that should be pooled. Longevity risk and the risk...

The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...

Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...

Whether in skill games like poker or luck games like blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...

The issue of closet tracker funds charging high fees for poor performance has been a recent gripe of the Financial Conduct Authority. It...