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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Sep 15, 20226 min read
How The Lake District Was Formed...In Three Minutes
For those interested in a quick summary of 500 million years of geological history of The Lakes
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Peter Elston
Sep 7, 20226 min read
Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
840
Peter Elston
Sep 2, 20223 min read
Extreme Hubris
Blue Whale's Steven Yiu may come to regret his decision to call publicly for 'most active managers to quit'
400
Peter Elston
Sep 1, 20226 min read
Time To Step Up
Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades
310
Peter Elston
Aug 30, 202210 min read
Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
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Peter Elston
Aug 26, 20224 min read
OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
320
Peter Elston
Aug 25, 20224 min read
Randomness And The Galton Board
For those who know what the normal/Gaussian distribution looks like but are not quite sure what it is
3640
Peter Elston
Aug 24, 20229 min read
What The *&%$ Is Schrödinger's Cat All About?
It may be possible to both understand and not understand Schrödinger's Cat at the same time
740
Peter Elston
Aug 22, 20226 min read
A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
500
Peter Elston
Aug 12, 20223 min read
Schrödinger's Thermostat
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
320
Peter Elston
Aug 8, 202213 min read
It's About Jobs, Stupid!
Will tighter monetary policy in the US induce a gentle easing in labour market pressures or something unpleasant?
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Peter Elston
Aug 3, 20223 min read
Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
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Peter Elston
Aug 1, 20223 min read
Western Consumer Spending Is Looking Vulnerable
Consumer sentiment and confidence indicators in the US, Eurozone, and UK point to grim days ahead
250
Peter Elston
Jul 29, 20222 min read
The US Is Not In Recession...Yet
The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed
310
Peter Elston
Jul 27, 20226 min read
Prediction Machines
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
500
Peter Elston
Jul 25, 20227 min read
Is Gold Still Gold?
An appraisal of the fundamental reasons for buying gold
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Peter Elston
Jul 22, 20225 min read
Is Gold Still Precious?
The outlook for gold in the context of its long-term price trend
760
Peter Elston
Jul 19, 20223 min read
The Age of Scarcity
The developed world has had it good for too long
370
Peter Elston
Jul 14, 20224 min read
Blurred Lines or No Lines?
Retail investors cannot be adequately protected until the fundamental similarity between investing and gambling is recognised
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Peter Elston
Jul 13, 20224 min read
Stuck
Why should the QE of the last 15 years be causing inflation only now?
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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