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The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20223 min read
The Mother of All Themes
Understanding the basic science behind man-made climate change can give investors an edge. However, for the non-expert.
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20223 min read
Growing Pains
I remember feeling extremely honoured when I was invited four years ago to write this column. It seemed to me to be a great opportunity.
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20214 min read
Heavy Weather
In November, the UK will host the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26). Considering this, and the recent extreme weather
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20214 min read
Vital Statistics
Statistical analysis reveals truth about data. Academic papers based on experimental data normally require a formal, statistical analysis...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20213 min read
Buy Young, Sell Old
How and when should you buy in and sell out of the stock market? My natural response to this age old question is to suggest that one...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20204 min read
Of Probability and Presidents
Cricket often produces riveting five-day games, but in early November the US delivered its own epic struggle. I refer of course to the...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20203 min read
What is a Technology Business?
Our ancestor who made the first stone tool, perhaps as long as three million years ago, set in motion one of the most enduring of...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20203 min read
The Price of Safety
The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20195 min read
Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market
I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20194 min read
What Poker, Blackjack and Coin Toss can Teach you About Investing
Whether in skill games like poker or luck games like blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20183 min read
Will an Algorithm Replace Me?
I was presenting at a multi-asset investing conference recently and during the Q&A was asked, “Will you be replaced by an ‘algo’?” My...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20183 min read
The Investor as an Animal
Behaviour is everything. Our collective behaviour determines whether we as societies or as a race are creating or destroying. From time...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20183 min read
Gaining an Edge from Gambling
I never gamble. Not because I think it is a stupid thing to do - though it certainly can be - I just don’t have the time or inclination....
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20173 min read
Long-Term Growth Prospects may be Rosier than you Think
The concept of ‘intrinsic value’ is at the heart of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s 1934 framework that would later be known as ‘value...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20172 min read
Interesting Anomaly with Respect to Global Fund Managers’ AUM Rankings
I mentioned at the start of this letter that we had been shortlisted for two prestigious awards. We were nominated in two of 18...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20172 min read
Attempt at Murder Sleuthing
I watched this documentary and became fascinated by the case. Michael Peterson was convicted of murdering his wife, having tried,...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20176 min read
Is a Computer Going to Steal my Job as a Fund Manager?
Question: what is significant about the dates February 1996, October 2015 and January 2017? Answer: these were the dates on which, for...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20154 min read
Healthcare Stocks are Sniffing, but They will Get Better
Healthcare stocks have certainly caught a nasty cold recently. Investors have fled as if they fear an infection. But as with humans, so...
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Peter Elston
Aug 1, 20152 min read
Scientific Advance
I don’t know whether it’s me noticing them more, the media picking up on them to a greater extent, or the fact that there are more of...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20142 min read
In Support of Lemmings
The article Retirement fund managers behave 'like lemmings' in today's FT caught my eye, not because of the subject matter, though...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
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Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
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Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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