Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
top of page
INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Jan 27, 20234 min read
Taking The Fear Out Of Maths
Improving maths standards will involve addressing the very real problem of maths anxiety
1460
Peter Elston
Jan 19, 20233 min read
Auntie! No!
The PM should start with the BBC when it comes to improving maths standards
840
Peter Elston
Dec 16, 20228 min read
Another Victim of Bad Maths?
Criminologist Prof David Wilson writes on Suspected Miscarriage of Justice Case Colin Norris
1,6270
Peter Elston
Oct 26, 20227 min read
Understanding This Will Make You A Better Person
Bayes' Theorem can be used to make better decisions, whether in the courtroom or the stock market
3620
Peter Elston
Oct 12, 20227 min read
Miscarriages of Justice in Killer Caregiver Cases
As another 'angel of death' case gets underway in Manchester, the spotlight is turned once again on use of statistics and investigation obje
1,1781
Peter Elston
Sep 15, 20226 min read
How The Lake District Was Formed...In Three Minutes
For those interested in a quick summary of 500 million years of geological history of The Lakes
7550
Peter Elston
Sep 7, 20226 min read
Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
840
Peter Elston
Aug 26, 20224 min read
OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
320
Peter Elston
Aug 25, 20224 min read
Randomness And The Galton Board
For those who know what the normal/Gaussian distribution looks like but are not quite sure what it is
3460
Peter Elston
Aug 24, 20229 min read
What The *&%$ Is Schrödinger's Cat All About?
It may be possible to both understand and not understand Schrödinger's Cat at the same time
740
Peter Elston
Aug 22, 20226 min read
A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
500
Peter Elston
Jul 4, 20227 min read
How Not To Date A Hominin
Seeing at close hand that science is not always about the search for truth came as a bit of a surprise
540
Peter Elston
Jun 22, 20224 min read
Valuing the Essential Nature of Stuff
There is a remarkably simple test for whether something has intrinsic value
790
Peter Elston
Jun 21, 20224 min read
Do Trends Exist?
It's not about cycles and trends, but pattern and randomness
1040
Peter Elston
Jun 19, 20223 min read
Incredible Iceland!
A taste of what Iceland has to offer geologically
680
Peter Elston
Jun 8, 20222 min read
Musical chairs...sort of
On my flight to Reykjavik this morning - it was an early one but at least it actually departed, and on time - I remembered a maths...
7710
Peter Elston
Jun 3, 20222 min read
Of Laptops And Chimps
I'm off for the next two weeks. I had lined up a hundred chimps, each with their own laptop, in the hope that they could continue...
690
Peter Elston
May 29, 20224 min read
Grin And Bear It
Signs point to the start of a bond bear market Since their peak on 4 August 2020, long duration Treasuries are down 40% in real terms....
560
Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20224 min read
Divine Messages?
I remember with amusement a presentation some years ago by a technical analyst, a so-called chartist.
730
Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
bottom of page