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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20184 min read
Review and Outlook
June saw equity markets around the world give back some of the gains made in April and May. The trigger for these falls appeared to be...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20183 min read
Review and Outlook
The month of May saw equities on the whole continuing to recover from their February and March declines as economic data remained broadly...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20184 min read
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20184 min read
My Framework for Tactical Asset Allocation
My framework for tactical asset allocation is based on business cycle analysis and the documented findings that asset classes tend to...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20174 min read
Three Lessons from Value Investing
This is my fourth and final piece on value investing. Next year’s four will be on the topic of behavioural investing. In light of Richard...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20172 min read
The Case for UK Growth
In his 1992 Chairman’s Letter, Warren Buffett wrote that the investment approaches ‘value’ and ‘growth’ are “joined at the hip”. In many...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20172 min read
Wealth Creation from US Equities Since 1926
I was alerted by an article in the Evening Standard to an interesting research paper entitled Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? The...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20173 min read
How to Protect your Portfolio
My framework for thinking about asset allocation and thus portfolio protection is based around business cycle analysis. It is well...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20174 min read
Preparing for the Next Downturn
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The whole point...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20173 min read
Beware Dividend Concentration Among UK Large Caps
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Much has been...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20172 min read
Why we are Focusing on Good Value UK Mid-Caps
I must warn readers upfront that we at Seneca are value investors, and are thus naturally sceptical about growth investing in its...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20175 min read
Preparing for the Impending End of the Bond Bull Market
I know I bang on about this, but value investing is about so much more than buying low price-to-earnings or low price-to-book stocks....
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20171 min read
The Bridge to your Comfortable Retirement
“If you’re going to burn a bridge, make sure you’ve crossed it first.” Whoever said that might well have been referring to the bridge...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20174 min read
A Closer Look at the Relationship Between Return and Volatility
It is generally agreed and understood that to enjoy higher returns over the longer term one must accept higher levels of volatility in...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20174 min read
Tactical Asset Allocation and the Business Cycle
I recently came across a paper written in 2008 by Robeco’s Pim van Vliet and David Blitz entitled Dynamic Strategic Asset Allocation:...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20164 min read
Why Value Investors Don’t Have to Restrict Themselves to Cheap Stocks
I’m thinking about launching a smart beta ETF called the “Smart Alpha Smart Beta ETF”. It would invest only in shares that go up. At the...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20164 min read
Citywire Investment Committee No.2
As I write this Donald Trump has just been declared president and I congratulate him on playing a blinder of a hand. Let’s hope he can...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20164 min read
A Selective Approach to Investing in Asia
I was fortunate to have spent twenty or so years working in Asia. It has been – and continues to be – the highest growth region in the...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20164 min read
US Election – a Dangerous Distraction
As I write this Donald Trump has just been declared president and I congratulate him on playing a blinder of a hand. Let’s hope he can...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20164 min read
The Most Interesting Question in the World?
Here’s an interesting question: do the low or negative long-term real interest rates that prevail around the world signify a bleak...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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