Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Feb 10, 20235 min read
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
1520
Peter Elston
Jan 6, 20236 min read
Do Not Let Your Comfortable Retirement Slip Away
Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation
2223
Peter Elston
Dec 14, 20226 min read
Doves In Hawk Clothing
When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?
1480
Peter Elston
Dec 2, 20228 min read
Vanguard Doubles Down
The passive fund behemoth refuses to consider possibility that inflation will remain high
1091
Peter Elston
Nov 25, 20225 min read
Inflation (Part 47)
Some thoughts on this most important of issues following participation in a Citywire debate
860
Peter Elston
Nov 4, 20226 min read
Is Vanguard In Denial?
The manager of the huge passive balanced fund range is clearly conflicted
3222
Peter Elston
Oct 27, 20225 min read
Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds
940
Peter Elston
Oct 20, 20221 min read
Citywire: Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
My latest piece, published in Citywire, takes aim at balanced and risk-rated funds
500
Peter Elston
Oct 18, 20223 min read
Risk Rated Funds Are Broken
We are now in an environment in which bonds are riskier than equities, spelling trouble for risk rated funds
670
Peter Elston
Sep 28, 20223 min read
Carnage
If you enjoy reading this blog, please leave a star rating on WealthTender. Thank you! The ramifications of the big fall in Gilts will be...
831
Peter Elston
Sep 7, 20226 min read
Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
840
Peter Elston
Sep 1, 20226 min read
Time To Step Up
Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades
310
Peter Elston
Aug 30, 202210 min read
Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
902
Peter Elston
Aug 26, 20224 min read
OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
320
Peter Elston
Aug 22, 20226 min read
A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
500
Peter Elston
Aug 12, 20223 min read
Schrödinger's Thermostat
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
320
Peter Elston
Aug 3, 20223 min read
Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
850
Peter Elston
Jul 29, 20222 min read
The US Is Not In Recession...Yet
The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed
310
Peter Elston
Jul 27, 20226 min read
Prediction Machines
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
500
Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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