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This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...

In last month’s column I wrote about the yield curve – the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates – and how its...

A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...

The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...

Until the beginning of October last year, equity markets had generally been faring well, while bond and commodity markets reflected firm...

This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....

Last month’s column was about predicting financial markets over the medium term. This month I thought it would be fun to look much...

I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...

In January 2016, I wrote about some interesting but little-heard-of research by Dr Leo Krippner at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the...

October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....

Renowned economist Milton Friedman wrote: “Inflation is a disease, a dangerous and sometimes fatal disease, a disease that if not checked...

Just before the 1929 Wall Street crash, celebrated Yale economist Irving Fisher claimed that the stock market had reached “a permanently...

Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...

Equity markets were generally strong in July, as investors appeared to shrug off fears of a global trade war. US and Eurozone equities...

June saw equity markets around the world give back some of the gains made in April and May. The trigger for these falls appeared to be...

The month of May saw equities on the whole continuing to recover from their February and March declines as economic data remained broadly...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Since the Great...

As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...