Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette
This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20193 min read
A Confusing Time for Economists
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20193 min read
An Unwelcome Comeback
In last month’s column I wrote about the yield curve – the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates – and how its...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20193 min read
This Time it is Different, Again
A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20193 min read
Gold Is Not What You Think It Is
The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20192 min read
Global Growth
Until the beginning of October last year, equity markets had generally been faring well, while bond and commodity markets reflected firm...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20198 min read
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20193 min read
The Road Ahead
Last month’s column was about predicting financial markets over the medium term. This month I thought it would be fun to look much...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20193 min read
Advice for the Asset Allocator
I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20197 min read
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20184 min read
Krippner Revisited
In January 2016, I wrote about some interesting but little-heard-of research by Dr Leo Krippner at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20185 min read
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20183 min read
Inflation Warning Flashes Red
Renowned economist Milton Friedman wrote: “Inflation is a disease, a dangerous and sometimes fatal disease, a disease that if not checked...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20183 min read
It’s Different this Time. Really?
Just before the 1929 Wall Street crash, celebrated Yale economist Irving Fisher claimed that the stock market had reached “a permanently...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20185 min read
Am I Right to Worry About Higher Inflation?
Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20184 min read
Review and Outlook
Equity markets were generally strong in July, as investors appeared to shrug off fears of a global trade war. US and Eurozone equities...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20184 min read
Review and Outlook
June saw equity markets around the world give back some of the gains made in April and May. The trigger for these falls appeared to be...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20183 min read
Review and Outlook
The month of May saw equities on the whole continuing to recover from their February and March declines as economic data remained broadly...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20185 min read
Secular Stagnation? Or the Optimistic View?
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Since the Great...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20184 min read
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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