Statistics and Science

How and when should you buy in and sell out of the stock market? My natural response to this age old question is to suggest that one...

The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...

I was presenting at a multi-asset investing conference recently and during the Q&A was asked, “Will you be replaced by an ‘algo’?” My...

The concept of ‘intrinsic value’ is at the heart of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s 1934 framework that would later be known as ‘value...

Question: what is significant about the dates February 1996, October 2015 and January 2017? Answer: these were the dates on which, for...

The article Retirement fund managers behave 'like lemmings' in today's FT caught my eye, not because of the subject matter, though...

Cricket often produces riveting five-day games, but in early November the US delivered its own epic struggle. I refer of course to the...

I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...

Behaviour is everything. Our collective behaviour determines whether we as societies or as a race are creating or destroying. From time...

I mentioned at the start of this letter that we had been shortlisted for two prestigious awards. We were nominated in two of 18...

Healthcare stocks have certainly caught a nasty cold recently. Investors have fled as if they fear an infection. But as with humans, so...

Our ancestor who made the first stone tool, perhaps as long as three million years ago, set in motion one of the most enduring of...

Whether in skill games like poker or luck games like blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...

I never gamble. Not because I think it is a stupid thing to do - though it certainly can be - I just don’t have the time or inclination....

I watched this documentary and became fascinated by the case. Michael Peterson was convicted of murdering his wife, having tried,...

I don’t know whether it’s me noticing them more, the media picking up on them to a greater extent, or the fact that there are more of...