Macro

Inflation has been on the rise recently in the UK and around the world. Is this rise transitory, as central bankers are saying it is, or...

Whether because of covid-19 or otherwise, the quest for yield has in recent times been strewn with casualties. Where and how can...

In general, stocks that pay out as dividends either nothing or a low portion of profits have, in recent years, been outperforming those...

The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...

This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...

This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...

In a recent op-ed, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath noted that: “For the first time, in 60% of the global economy – including 97% of...

Our ancestor who made the first stone tool, perhaps as long as three million years ago, set in motion one of the most enduring of...

As many will know from bitter experience, a crisis often has two stages. The first is the crisis itself, whether a natural disaster that...

For some time now I have been expecting the current global business cycle to end in 2020, with the caveat that it was almost as likely to...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...

The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...

Last month’s column was about predicting financial markets over the medium term. This month I thought it would be fun to look much...

In January 2016, I wrote about some interesting but little-heard-of research by Dr Leo Krippner at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the...

Asia Pacific countries excluding Japan comprise 13% of the MSCI All Country World index. Given that they account for over 50% of the...

To invoke US conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman Charlie Munger: if investing is not thematic, what the hell is it? Here is...

While it is essential that we protect the integrity of health services, it is equally important that we stop what will undoubtedly be...

This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...

In last month’s column I wrote about the yield curve – the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates – and how its...

Until the beginning of October last year, equity markets had generally been faring well, while bond and commodity markets reflected firm...

I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...

October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....