Macro

An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets

Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation

Some thoughts on this most important of issues following participation in a Citywire debate

Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds

If you enjoy reading this blog, please leave a star rating on WealthTender. Thank you! The ramifications of the big fall in Gilts will be...

Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles

Will tighter monetary policy in the US induce a gentle easing in labour market pressures or something unpleasant?

The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed

The effort to improve financial literacy in this country itself needs to be improved

When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?

Irresponsible reporting about real wage growth by the BBC encourages public sector workers to strike

My latest piece, published in Citywire, takes aim at balanced and risk-rated funds

Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades

Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns

A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns

It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together

The PM should start with the BBC when it comes to improving maths standards

The passive fund behemoth refuses to consider possibility that inflation will remain high

The manager of the huge passive balanced fund range is clearly conflicted

We are now in an environment in which bonds are riskier than equities, spelling trouble for risk rated funds

Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent

Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?

Consumer sentiment and confidence indicators in the US, Eurozone, and UK point to grim days ahead

An appraisal of the fundamental reasons for buying gold